Commentary on recent market volatility
On April 2nd, President Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on virtually the whole world, which rattled global financial markets. In the 2 days after the announcement, the US stock market, as broadly measured by the S&P 500, fell by over 10%. The market reaction to the tariff announcement resulted in the worst sell-off since the COVID-19 pandemic 5 years ago, temporarily erasing over $5 trillion dollars in stock market wealth.
I know market ups and downs can feel unsettling, but history has shown time and again that markets recover and go on to reach new highs, often quicky—even after major downturns. The table below shows the 10 worst one-day drops in the US stock market from 1981 to 2025, and the subsequent recoveries.
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Date
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Cause
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One-Day Decline %
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# of days to reach previous high
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Return after 1 year
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Annual returns: 3 years
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Annual returns: 5 years
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|
1
|
October19,1987
|
BlackMonday
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-20.47%
|
264
|
23.19%
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11.59%
|
13.03%
|
|
2
|
March 16,2020
|
COVID-19Pandemic
|
-11.98%
|
19
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66.07%
|
18.41%
|
18.77%
|
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3
|
March 12,2020
|
COVID-19Pandemic
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-9.51%
|
20
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58.96%
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15.91%
|
17.69%
|
|
4
|
October15, 2008
|
GlobalFinancial Crisis
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-9.03%
|
15
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20.79%
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10.50%
|
13.34%
|
|
5
|
December1st, 2008
|
GlobalFinancial Crisis
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-8.93%
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6
|
35.85%
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15.11%
|
17.22%
|
|
6
|
September29, 2008
|
GlobalFinancial Crisis
|
-8.79%
|
410
|
-4.14%
|
1.60%
|
8.87%
|
|
7
|
October26, 1987
|
BlackMonday 2.0
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-8.28%
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5
|
23.59%
|
10.20%
|
12.92%
|
|
8
|
October9, 2008
|
GlobalFinancial Crisis
|
-7.62%
|
3
|
17.76%
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8.30%
|
12.73%
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9
|
March 9,2020
|
COVID-19Pandemic
|
-7.60%
|
57
|
41.10%
|
12.58%
|
16.01%
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|
10
|
October27, 1997
|
AsianFinancial Crisis
|
-6.87%
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8
|
21.48%
|
16.30%
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0.47%
|
|
|
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Source:Ned Davis Research, Morningstar
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|
80.7
|
30.47%
|
12.05%
|
13.11%
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On average, it took 81 days for the US market to reach its previous high. 8 out of 10 times this happened in less than 60 days and 70% of the time it took place in 20 days or less. The average return 12 months after these market declines was over 30% and the 3- & 5- year subsequent annual rates of return were 12-13%.
The key takeaway? Volatility is temporary, and staying the course pays off. Emotional decisions often lead to missed opportunities, but market dips can also create opportunities to adjust and strengthen your strategy.
In periods of market volatility, it is important to maintain a long-term perspective. Our client's investment portfolios are built with resilience in mind, with proper diversification by geography and asset class. History has shown us that, as uncomfortable as it may feel during the midst of a market sell-off, staying the course is usually the best approach. Keep calm and carry on and know that I am here anytime to help if you have any questions or concerns.
*The comments contained herein are a general discussion of certain issues intended as general information only and should not be relied upon as tax or legal advice. Please obtain independent professional advice, in the context of your particular circumstances. This article was written by Rick Irwin, for the benefit of Rick Irwin, Mutual Fund Representative with Trinity Wealth Partners, a registered trade name with Investia Financial Services Inc., and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Investia Financial Services Inc. The information contained in this article comes from sources we believe reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or reliability. The opinions expressed are based on an analysis and interpretation dating from the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Furthermore, they do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Mutual Funds are offered through Investia Financial Services Inc. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.